Covid-19
PANDEMIC

What is it?

If you have been living under a rock..

Artist Impression of Corona Virus (src)
The Covid-19 virus is a member of the coronavirus family that made the jump from animals to humans late last year. Many of those initially infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the centre of the Chinese city of Wuhan. Unusually for a virus that has made the jump from one species to another, it appears to transmit effectively in humans – current estimates show that without strong containment measures the average person who catches Covid-19 will pass it on to two others.
Following are the symptoms of Covid19,
  • Fever
  • Cough
  • Shortness of breath
They might appear after 2-14 days of exposure.

A Comparision

Comparing covid19 with its neighbours

Reproduction Number of coronavirus is 2.3
The basic reproduction number is used to measure the transmission potential of a disease. It is the average number of secondary infections by a single infection in a population. For measles it is R0 = 18, which means an infected person can infect 15 healthy individuals. Luckily for corona virus it is R0 = 2.3. But still is significant when you consider exopnential increase and the mortality rate to reproduction number ratio.
The R0 does not directly determine the mortality rate and the effectiveness of spreading. The risk factors also include age, population density, location and other variables. WHO declared that any disease with R0 > 1 should be controlled with immediate measures, and that is why we are Quarantined
Click on a node(ball) to simulate the spreading of each disease, values are magnified for the purpose of simulation. Blue - Healthy, Orange - infected, Black - Dead

Exponential Growth!

Understand about the growth of Covid19

#flattenthecurve together
Exponential growth for Covid19 is a scary situation if it continues. any biological system under favorable conditions will grow in the same fashion. But this problem can be controlled using one solution. It is Self Quarantine and sheltering in place. Basic idea behid self quarantine is that you stay at home to prevent the spreading of the virus. The virus might use you as a medium of transport to another healthy person with comparatively less immune system.
2-3.1
Covid

← Adjust slider to adjust value of R0
An interactive chart showing exopnential growth with respect to R0. Adjust slider(top) to see. Compare actual Covid19 data(right) with estimated graph(middle)
Stay at home, flatten the curve (src)
Exponential growth is so powerful not because it's necessarily fast, but because it's relentless. Without introducing a factor to suppress it, exponential growth is an infectious disease doctor's nightmare, particularly as more time goes on.
Self Quarantine is the best solution, since there is no vaccine
This awesome article sums up everything related to exponential spread and the reason for social distancing. The flatter the curve, the lesser the spreading of virus. China, South Korea are already trying to flatten the curve. They reduced the number of new cases per week significantly through self quarantine and thorough testing.
Best explanation of "why self isolation?"


Thanks for reading :) I had only so much time and data to visualize

TK Vishal